Riddle me this (trade-in values)

[Will2]

2024 with more than double the miles is worth $4,000 more than an identical 2025?

Not based on a specific VIN, so it's not due to options, or collision history, or anything like that. I got these values by entering model, year, make, and options (just auto transmission and white color).

Can someone explain why this might be?
Just a glitch due to a small dataset?

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[armyGT]

You better keep and enjoy your Mustang since they are a bad investment. The current car market is slow and since the S650 was introduced, they are not flying off the new car lots. Dealers need to price used vehicles so that they can sell them especially during the winter months. As always, it's supply and demand. I have no good answer for what KBB estimates are. But 24's and 25's are bringing mid 30's on trades. My 24 has dropped in price with regards to a trade-in nearly $20K even with a bit over 1500 miles on the clock. The dealers need a $10K cushion for a slow seller.
The real car world differs from Barrett Jackson....

 

[Alan Applegate]

I look at this from a different point of view. If you're rich, don't care about your future retirement, and just can't help yourself, then you trade vehicles often enough to satisfy your apparent bi-polar disorder. If you're like the vast majority of Americans, you plan your purchase and eventually its sale. The latter issue (sale) almost no one thinks about ahead of time, but should!

If you're looking to trade up because you didn't plan your purchase and didn't order that feature-set you should have ordered, you're throwing good money away. The real costs either way isn't the vehicle itself, rather it is the processing fees! Dealers and/or financing companies are in business to make money, not to give you a break just because you didn't plan properly.

While I'm on this rant, far too many folks lease their personal vehicles. Leasing is the most expensive way to buy anything! Leasing also has the highest profit margin for both dealers and financing companies. In the long run, Christmas saving plans are the cheapest way to plan for a vehicle purchase!

Now you know why a lot of those Mustangs you see on dealer lots are there in the first place—leasing. And you can bet the residual payment due was added to the past owner's new lease! Ouch!

 

[BimmerDriver]

Can someone explain why this might be?
Just a glitch due to a small dataset?

Exactly!

Although your question seems to have prompted at least two people (so far) to vent and rant about unrelated topics, which were themselves entertaining if not on point.

 

[Skye]

If a Member or someone you find has access to it, I've read several comments of "Black Book"; this is a service used by dealers to determine trade-in values, what they'd be willing to pay.

For retail pricing comparables, I use Autotrader. It's granular, in search and vehicle features, allowing you to crunch variables easily.

Edit,

Autotrader is showing 1,680 used '24Mustangs on offer, nationwide. 157 new.

 

[james32thedge]

If a Member or someone you find has access to it, I've read several comments of "Black Book"; this is a service used by dealers to determine trade-in values, what they'd be willing to pay.

For retail pricing comparables, I use Autotrader. It's granular, in search and vehicle features, allowing you to crunch variables easily.

Edit,

Autotrader is showing 1,680 used '24Mustangs on offer, nationwide. 157 new.

I was offered 51,000 for my 2024 DH with 4000 miles on a trade on a new GT 350 (130,000) and I paid 61,000 for it. Never made the trade, I just can't bring myself to pay 130,000 for a car, but it was beautiful car.

 

[Frogdog1]

As Skye mentioned, Autotrader is where the rubber meets the road. Dealers like to pull out their little "Black Book", which we don't have, or some other bogus "source" so they appear to have an inside "authority" of car vaues. NO, the value of cars is what people are buying and selling them for. Dealers will never be able to deal with this effectively, except to suckers, so they have their secret little "Black Book" of some kind. It may as well be Mad Magazine AFAIC. It's such a sleazy business. That's why car salesmen have such a shitty reputation and get referred to as "used car salesmen". When they overcome that label, they may begin to be taken seriously. They have a LONG ways to go.

 

[COBill]

The source dealers have that we don't is access to Manheim auction values, which is the true value of a car.

This is supposed to be where "Black Book" got their values but they've diverged.

Today getting a no obligation CarMax quote is the best "back of the envelope" source.

 

[Neggytive]

NADA is the book used by most dealers, it has the most accurate information IMHO as it compiles data from reporting dealers who subscribe to the service. It is owned by JD Powers.

It is what I use in insurance work as one part of establishing the value of a totaled car.

Autotrader is owned by Cox, which also owns Kelley Blue Book.

Now outside of NADA, there are now apps for dealers where you can scan the VIN, it will decode it with all the options, check for a dirty car fax, and tell you how many other similar cars there are for sale near by, and what the auction prices have been.

If you are trying to trade in a 25, when there are still 25's on the lot brand new that are being discounted, most people will spring for a new car with the incentives such as low interest financing before they buy a used one.

The question I always ask when I see a newer car on the lot for sale is was it a short term lease that got turned back in or is it someone's problem they are trying to get rid of. With 6 and 7 year financing being the norm and people underwater on valuation especially in the first few years why are they paying to dump this car, either by having to put up cash to get the payoff figure the same as the trade in value, or they have found a way to roll the negative equity into a new loan so they are paying interest on interest.

Now lets look at the Mustang as a car.

It has low production numbers because the average consumer doesn't want what is essentially a 2 seat car, Coupes used to be the norm, now they are a very small percentage of all cars, and cars are being replaced by SUV's

No teenager is running around saying they want a Mustang, they want a Civic R

You want a car that retains value, buy a Toyota. My last toyota lost $9000 in value in 6 years
That was 30% of value.

A normal car looses 20 to 30% in the first 2 years, and 10 to 15% over the next 3, so that after 5 years it has lost 60% of its value. That is reality folks, a car is a depreciating asset and unless you heavily discount a one or 2 year old car, 99% of the buyers will spend the extra money and buy new.

Example a family member was looking at a 3 year old Suburu lease turn in, for $4000 more than what the dealer wanted for the used car I got her into a brand new Suburu, same model, better trim, with a new car warranty and 1.9% financing. It is a no brainer.

 

[SSuperDave]

I traded my Grabber Blue, Space Gray '24 in on a '26 last month. The '24 was a base GT, with auto and spare tire as the only options. It was exactly 2 years old, with 17,500 miles on it and had been obsessivley maintained, and I got $38K for it. Sticker when new was $45,500 and I paid D plan price of $40,500 when I bought it. It sold a week later for $41K.

 

[IceGamer]

The source dealers have that we don't is access to Manheim auction values, which is the true value of a car.

This is supposed to be where "Black Book" got their values but they've diverged.

Today getting a no obligation CarMax quote is the best "back of the envelope" source.

I can’t speak for the American market but I would assume that there are a lot of similarities between the US and Germany:

It used to be different but in today’s society there is no such thing as a ‘black book’ or secret dealer trade in program anymore. Everyone is selling their cars online and that is where the car evaluation begins. Customers use cars.com, Autotrader and other platform to look for cars. Dealers use these platforms to sell their cars and to evaluate how much they can charge for a car but also how much they are willing to pay for a trade in.
The calculation is probably always roughly the same:

• For how much are somewhat equal cars listed online? (mileage, year, options, damage history)
• A dealer has to make some ~15% on a sale so if a similar car is listed for $40K he would most likely be willing to pay some $34K. However, if the car needs some additional ‘care’ like new ties, breaks or so he most likely deduces these extra costs from the trade in value as well.

There is still another program that estimates the value of a trade-in, that customers have no access to but hardly anyone uses that program anymore because it is off by quite a few thousands almost every time. Literally every dealer told me/showed me what was offered by the program and we both laughed at the price so no, it’s not used for evaluation a trade-in primarily.

Here, like in the US, dealers can also buy cars from auctions but at least in Germany those are ‘rare’ encounters because those cars are sold without any warranty (too risky to sell to a private person) and the vast majority of auctioned off cars have either high mileages, repaired/unrepaired damages or are trade-ins from an ‘unfitting’ brand (like if someone would trade-in his Ford at an official BMW dealer, BMW would most likely not sell that car in their showroom but auction it off).

Keep in mind that there are vast differences between licensed dealers and unlicensed ones but I’ve seen both using public online platform to evaluate my trade-in ;)

 

[Frogdog1]

CarMax attempts to control the car market by buying cars at a no negotiating buy price, wash them up, a little touch up paint then sell them at another no negotiating price. So they do little to make a lot. Whatever, people buy cars from them. There is a reason a car is the worst investment of money there is. We have to have them though and everyone in the chain knows that. A horse might be a better investment.

 

[AZ_Ryan]

The trade-in value algorithms are all over the place when comparing the same car on KBB, Cars.com, and Autotrader. Some of them definitely skew toward the car company's they are contracted with.

 

[armyGT]

A good dealer friend of mine tells me that his dealership relies heavily on auction prices. When they take in a used car, they never give more than what the auction pays. That way if they need cash flow, they can clear out slow sellers and not lose money.

 

[AZ_Ryan]

A good dealer friend of mine tells me that his dealership relies heavily on auction prices. When they take in a used car, they never give more than what the auction pays. That way if they need cash flow, they can clear out slow sellers and not lose money.

Makes sense.

Trade in sites also cater to dealers. So there's that.

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