Possible UAW Strike

[LETHAL]

I'm curious and if you don't mind answering, how much of the staff at a plant are covered under the UAW?

I assume body, paint, assembly line type positions. But what about other areas, shipping, testing, facility maintenance, etc? Do those areas have their own unions?

From experience, most non plant jobs are not UAW. Facility jobs at non plant locations are UAW.

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[Gogoggansgo]

From experience, most non plant jobs are not UAW. Facility jobs at non plant locations are UAW.

That’s the real killer in the surrounding suppliers going down. And the lack of good inventory, don’t kid yourself I’m not saying we need to be paid 50 bucks and hour. I just want my hourly wage to match inflation

 

[MeMyselfandI]

I think everyone would like their jobs to match inflation but the reality is not going to be a 9% wage hike. If the unions managed that everyone else would want it and the economy can’t afford it.

 

[dfwford]

From experience, most non plant jobs are not UAW. Facility jobs at non plant locations are UAW.

^^^This is correct.

But the important takeaway is that the vast majority of the jobs most critical to productions *ARE* represented by the UAW.

In the past (talking decades ago), if a strike
went on for too long, American OEMs even went as far as furloughing salaried workers or having their engineers assemble the vehicles.

Engineers today of course are a different breed (many of them have never even touched the parts they're designing, nor visited the plants for the vehicles they're deisgning), so that probably wouldn't be a very practical alternative.

 

[dfwford]

It’s a bit more complex than that and yes inventory is really low it’s under 70 days currently and it model by model. And yeah without cola they’re sticking it to the workers. Biden is a bum but i wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls the same trick he did with the railroads. The main issue with the auto plants going down is everyone else being hit not the big 3, it would ruin the economy in the Midwest till things got back to normal. I could really care less but I’m telling you flat out if this contract is crap, they’ll be a strike and things will go south.

I know you have much more intimate knowledge than I do being on the inside.

That said, one thing you guys (the UAW) should bear in mind is that while inventory *IS* low and some disruption will be caused specificaly from an aftermarket standpoint with dealers not getting parts needed for repairs, since the 2008 bankruptcies, the Big 3 have gotten much wiser with the way they do business.

They intentionally keep their plants underutilized to prevent inventory from piling up, instead making up for the lost revenue from volume witha much greater profit margin per vehicle sold (which is part of the reason their vehicles have gotten so much more expensive, and also why they're mostly only selling Trucks / SUVs).

D-HAM (GM's plant in Detroit) is a perfect example of this, which for a long time only ran on 1 shift.

This is also why the UAW wasn't able to get much of what it wanted from GM in 2019 despite carrying on the stirke for over a month. The OEMs are in a much better position today operationally (than pre-2008) to hold out for a long time, knowing UAW workers will quickly get anxious after a few weeks without some assurance they'll keep receiving a steady paycheck.

 

[dfwford]

It’s a bit more complex than that and yes inventory is really low it’s under 70 days currently and it model by model. And yeah without cola they’re sticking it to the workers. Biden is a bum but i wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls the same trick he did with the railroads. The main issue with the auto plants going down is everyone else being hit not the big 3, it would ruin the economy in the Midwest till things got back to normal. I could really care less but I’m telling you flat out if this contract is crap, they’ll be a strike and things will go south.

One other thing...

The railroad stirke isn't the best comparison. Their union represented workers who worked on *ALL* the lines in the US.

While the Big 3 and its workers still make up a significant part of the Auto Industry, they're no longer the only players. This isn't 1969 where they had a ridiculous 90% market share.

Yes, some minor disruption will be caused at Tier 1 suppliers and some local businesses who depend on traffic from plant will hurt, but most suppliers (especially after 2008) were wise enough to diversify their customer base. They now do a ton of work for VW, Toyota, Honda, Kia/Hyundai, etc. (none of which are union). Worst case, if their work with GM / Ford / Chrysler dries up, they can easily adjust their production schedules to accommodate orders from the foreign OEMs instead (especially if they're common components that share similar tooling & manufacturing processes).

 

[Q6543]

GM striked last contract and basically did it all for nothing, like a month long strike to end up eating the same contract.
It was actually GOOD for GM as they were struggling with excess inventory on lots at the time.
Almost like a shady back room deal

a lot of hyperbole in the coming months

 

[Gogoggansgo]

I know you have much more intimate knowledge than I do being on the inside.

That said, one thing you guys (the UAW) should bear in mind is that while inventory *IS* low and some disruption will be caused specificaly from an aftermarket standpoint with dealers not getting parts needed for repairs, since the 2008 bankruptcies, the Big 3 have gotten much wiser with the way they do business.

They intentionally keep their plants underutilized to prevent inventory from piling up, instead making up for the lost revenue from volume witha much greater profit margin per vehicle sold (which is part of the reason their vehicles have gotten so much more expensive, and also why they're mostly only selling Trucks / SUVs).

D-HAM (GM's plant in Detroit) is a perfect example of this, which for a long time only ran on 1 shift.

This is also why the UAW wasn't able to get much of what it wanted from GM in 2019 despite carrying on the stirke for over a month. The OEMs are in a much better position today operations (than pre-2008) to hold out for a long time, knowing UAW workers will quickly get anxious after a few weeks without some assurance they'll keeping receiving a steady paycheck.

It’s extremely difficult to say how this will all go down because neither side is in a good position to screw over the other. The moral and turn over rate has gotten so out of control they can’t even get enough people to start new hire classes. It’s hard to get people in a rough plant at 16 bucks an hour. The UAWs big problem is they have been selling themselves out since the Great Recession, when they did a bunch of hand shake deals. Currently I’d say the UAW is in a bit better position because the current president is wild, and doesn’t really care if all 3 go on strike. It’s going to be a mess But it’ll go down in a few ways
1) big sign on bonus 15-20k to get people to sign
2) 5-8 dollar an hour raise instead to get people to sign
3) strike
4) they’ll try to continue the current crap 3 percent pay raise which is ever other year “this won’t work”

Beyond that it’s no man’s land

 

[Gogoggansgo]

GM striked last contract and basically did it all for nothing, like a month long strike to end up eating the same contract.
It was actually GOOD for GM as they were struggling with excess inventory on lots at the time.
Almost like a shady back room deal

a lot of hyperbole in the coming months

The 2019 GM strike was a joke, it was a power play because the UAW got caught with fraud. In my 15 years this is the first time I’ve seen management actually scared, they’re really spoked about all the crazy crap coming from upstairs

 

[Gogoggansgo]

One other thing...

The railroad stirke isn't the best comparison. Their union represented workers who worked on *ALL* the lines in the US.

While the Big 3 and its workers still make up a significant part of the Auto Industry, they're no longer the only players. This isn't 1969 where they had a ridiculous 90% market share.

Yes, some minor disruption will be caused at Tier 1 suppliers and some local businesses who depend on traffic from plant will hurt, but most suppliers (especially after 2008) were wise enough to diversify their customer base. They now do a ton of work for VW, Toyota, Honda, Kia/Hyundai, etc. (none of which are union). Worst case, if their work with GM / Ford / Chrysler dries up, they can easily adjust their production schedules to accommodate orders from the foreign OEMs instead (especially if they're common components that share similar tooling & manufacturing processes).

You’re forgetting one thing and that’s most suppliers are bootstraping right now, and doing one time production which is what got everyone in trouble back in 2020. Keyword IF all 3 strike at the same time we are in for some serious problems

 

[dfwford]

You’re forgetting one thing and that’s most suppliers are bootstraping right now, and doing one time production which is what got everyone in trouble back in 2020. Keyword IF all 3 strike at the same time we are in for some serious problems

Yeah, that would be a power play that imposes a bit more pain for sure.

And don't misconstrue my responses. I was raised in a union family and have family members in the UAW. I'm all for you all collectiely bargaining to get a fair slice of the pie and I stand in solidarity.

That said, the outcome of the 2019 GM strike does leave me a bit jaded with respect to your leverage.

 

[Gogoggansgo]

Yeah, that would be a power play that imposes a bit more pain for sure.

And don't misconstrue my responses. I was raised in a union family and have family members in the UAW. I'm all for you all collectiely bargaining to get a fair slice of the pie and I stand in solidarity.

That said, the outcome of the 2019 GM strike does leave me a bit jaded with respect to your leverage.

Don’t kid yourself my friend I’m no union fanboy because they’ve sold themselves out for years and you got a lot of problems with them. There is no perfect solution, when it comes to industrial level, Jobs, this includes the trades. Like for example the new blue oval city is not going to be union, and I’ve had to explain to a lot of people up here. That down in the south
1) they tend to associate unions to commies/socialist
2) its an economic thing more than anything else if you’re working at the new Toyota plant making 25 bucks an hour have some decent benefits. Then the UAW comes in there and tries to start a war, it never ends well for the union because they simply don’t care. It Billy is running around in a new truck because he works for Toyota and his neighbor doesn't. You’re never going to get them to go union NeverMind the fact the company pulls the “let’s just close the place”

For me unionization works only in areas that NEED it

Just my thoughts


And don’t get me started on that 2019 strike that was a joke, the bit difference now is we got some wild cowboy up top threatening all 3 to go on strike and he refused to do a handshake at bargaining and i know Jim farley was all salty about it

This is one of those situations it’ll either be a quiet contract or it’s going to be a mess

No in between

 

[marcekb]

4) they’ll try to continue the current crap 3 percent pay raise which is ever other year “this won’t work”

That's the norm across all industries in the US (for years now), even with the crazy inflation going on. Unfortunately, all the "free" money in the economy over the last few years has to be paid back with inflation now, but it doesn't look like anyone is ready to give bigger cost of living increases right now. Easier to outsource, automate and innovate.

 

[Gogoggansgo]

That's the norm across all industries in the US (for years now), even with the crazy inflation going on. Unfortunately, all the "free" money in the economy over the last few years has to be paid back with inflation now, but it doesn't look like anyone is ready to give bigger cost of living increases right now. Easier to outsource, automate and innovate.

You’re not lying and yeah if this contract doesn’t go so well for the big 3, you’re going to see a lot of plants going to the south

 

[LETHAL]

That’s the real killer in the surrounding suppliers going down. And the lack of good inventory, don’t kid yourself I’m not saying we need to be paid 50 bucks and hour. I just want my hourly wage to match inflation

I want your wage to be a good as it can be. Ya'll work hard and deserve it.

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