IFFV68
Well-Known Member
Excellent,You said 2024 sales should be 3x those of 2023 and that 2025 should be 3x what they are now. Sales now are comparable to 2024, hence 2025 sales should be 3x those of 2024. With your clarification, we see that the 2025 numbers you originally mentioned are irrelevant to your point that the first year of a new model should see sales increase by 300% of the final year of the last model. Thank you for the clarification.
That aside, you don't mention where this factor of 3 comes from. Is it backed by historical sales trends? Is it an industry rule of thumb? Is it an arbitrary number you made up? Is this sales target based on sales by production volume, or is it based on net sales? That last question is very important to actually analyzing whether Ford is meeting or exceeding sales targets, or if they're behind the projections.
In both cases, whether by net or by volume, sales are ahead of the same month last year, though still behind year-to-date. They also aren't producing as many, which means that the there aren't as many Mustangs sitting on dealership lots taking up space and increasing overhead costs. It also means that the production line isn't being overstressed to overproduce them. This allows the production line to run leaner and save on manufacturing costs and parts. The point here being that even if Ford was selling less, they're producing less and are still able to generate larger profits due to the reduced waste in manufacturing, with the key here being that the Mustang is still profitable.
Next, even with Ford being behind by 22% of net sales year-to-date, the increase in production since the beginning of the year has matched the increase in sales. Historically, March-May and September-December see new car sales spike. Typically because in the spring months buyers can find deals on current model year vehicles that are on their way out of production soon, and at the end of the year, they're buying the next model year on it's way in.
I speculate that we will see sales continue to increase through 2025, with the current upward trend ending early to mid June, holding through the summer, then rising again with the release of the 2026 model year. I anticipate Ford will break last years net sales numbers, but only marginally. That being said, they will beat last years sales by volume numbers by well over 50% and will exceed their sales targets, keep the Mustang profitable, and therefore, in production.
When it comes to business, sales and profitability forecasts are effected by so many variables that it can be difficult to see everything in the bigger picture. I know that the sales figures aren't delivering the staggeringly high net-sales numbers that you and others expect, but that doesn't mean the Mustang isn't doing well. Lower net sales numbers that are actually higher by-volume can be financially better for a company than higher net sales at the expense of higher production costs, (materials, manufacturing, transportation, storage, etc.) and dealer overhead costs. As someone who deals with all of these factors in aerospace on a much larger scale, it's not as bad as it looks.
I hope this helps.
I believe Ford can sell more cars, but for some reason, the Dark Horse is a limited production Mustang.
You see where people wait over a year to have a Dark Horse built?
If you order a Dark Horse or a GT with the PP in the late Summer Months you won’t receive it until early Spring if you live in the Snow States because of the Summer Tires!
If Ford had an option for the Summer Tires vs All Season Tires maybe sales would increase.
I guess Ford’s priorities are their F-150’s.
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